Sunday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 173-122 roll

The Chicago Bears will try to continue their good recent play when they hit the road to face the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football. After losing its first four games of the season, Chicago (2-5) has won two of its last three. The Bears are coming off a 30-12 victory against the Raiders. On the other hand, Los Angeles (2-4) is playing arguably its worst ball of the season. The Chargers enter Sunday’s showdown having lost back-to-back games and sit in third place in the AFC West.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET. Los Angeles is a 9-point favorite in the latest Bears vs. Chargers odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 46. Before you make any Chargers vs. Bears picks or NFL predictions, you need to see the NFL betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 173-122 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 27-14 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Chargers vs. Bears and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can see the model’s picks only at SportsLine. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bears vs. Chargers:

Bears vs. Chargers spread: Los Angeles -9
Bears vs. Chargers over/under: 46 points
Bears vs. Chargers money line: Los Angeles -454, Chicago +346
LAC: Chargers rank eighth in passing offense (252.3 yards per game)
CHI: Bears are fifth in rushing offense (141.3 yards per game)
Bears vs. Chargers picks: See picks here
Bears vs. Chargers live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Chargers can cover
Los Angeles’ record may be a byproduct of the team’s tough schedule. The Chargers have lost to only one team with a losing record (Titans) this season. Three of the Chargers’ four losses came against the Dolphins (5-2), Cowboys (4-2) and Chiefs (6-1). Last week’s 31-17 loss to Kansas City was the only defeat this season that was by more than three points.

In addition, Los Angeles has been good at stopping opposing running backs this season. In fact, the Chargers are holding opposing backs to 3.6 yards per rush, which is tied for sixth-best in the league. Last week, they held Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco to just 2.5 yards per carry. See which team to pick here.

Why the Bears can cover
Undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent has a good matchup facing the Los Angeles pass defense. The Chargers rank dead last in the league in pass defense, allowing 310.0 passing yards per game. Los Angeles also ranks last in opponent’s yards per attempt (8.8) and next-to-last in opponent’s passer rating (105.6).

In addition, injured Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has struggled badly over the last three games. Prior to fracturing the middle finger of his left hand in a Week 4 win over the Raiders, Herbert had completed 74.4% of his passes with six touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 112.9 rating. In three games since, he has completed 57.1% of his passes with four touchdowns and four interceptions and a 75.9 rating. See which team to pick here.

How to make Bears vs. Chargers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the point total, predicting 54 total points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can see the model’s NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine.